up:: [[PDC-ADV - Permaculture Design for Climate Resilience]] tags:: #source/course #on/permaculture #on/climate_change people:: [[Andrew Millison]] # PDC-ADV M4 - Climate Change Analogues The global average temperature rise and human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases lead to unpredictable consequences due to feedback loops and complex interactions in the biosphere. Despite uncertainties, climate models offer educated projections based on data. **General Predicted Trends:** - **Surface Temperature Rise:** Projected to increase in the 21st century under all emission scenarios. - **Extreme Weather Events:** Heatwaves expected to be more frequent and longer. Intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events likely to increase. - **Ocean and Sea Level:** Ocean warming and acidification anticipated, along with rising sea levels. **1) Impact on Jetstream:** - **Arctic and Antarctic Influence:** Rapid heating causing loss of ice coverage, affecting pressure differentials. - **Jetstream Behavior:** Depressurization due to reduced temperature differential, leading to stalled and sluggish movement. - **Weather Persistence:** Results in prolonged weather conditions like rain, snow, heat, drought, or cold. **2) Wetter Tropics:** - **Increased Evaporation:** Higher temperatures leading to more water evaporating into the atmosphere. - **Precipitation Changes:** Non-uniform changes in precipitation, with wet tropics experiencing more intense events. - **Impact on Weather Phenomena:** Intensification of hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoon precipitation. **3) Expanded Dry Areas:** - **Subtropical Regions:** Reduction in surface and groundwater resources, coupled with increased drought frequency. - **Extreme Heat and Precipitation:** More extreme heat events, punctuated by intense precipitation events. **4) High Latitude Warming:** - **Arctic Impact:** Higher latitude land masses in the northern hemisphere warming more than other areas. - **Visible Effects:** Reduction in snow cover, sea ice, and melting permafrost. - **Projection:** Arctic potentially ice-free in summer by 2050, leading to changes in climate zones. **5) Altitudinal Shifts:** - **Ecosystem Changes:** Elevational boundaries between vegetative types shifting due to climate change. - **Inconsistent Shifts:** Variability in elevational zone changes globally. - **Implications:** Changes in vegetation types and ecosystems, impacting biodiversity and adaptation strategies. These trends highlight the complex and interconnected nature of climate change impacts, affecting various regions differently and emphasizing the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures. #### Climate Change Analogues The concept of climate analogues, both in terms of present climates and projected future climates due to climate change, is discussed in this book. Climate analogues refer to areas with similar climates. Forecasting climate change involves considering various factors, including potential stable states and the uncertainties surrounding human-induced climate change. Most forecasts focus on the latter part of the 21st century, aligning with the lifespan of a child born today. However, practicality and incremental change are emphasized to avoid introducing species that may not thrive in the present. Locating climate analogues is valuable for research organizations like CCAFS, CGIAR, and ICRAF, facilitating the exchange of genetic material and farmer trainings. Specific goals include finding species that will thrive in future climates and putting farmers in touch with their agricultural futures. Practical examples demonstrate the benefits of this approach, such as addressing potential yield drops in maize-growing regions or preparing soybean farmers for climate shifts. The Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security has organized farmer visits to their climate change analogues, fostering knowledge exchange and preparation strategies. Similar initiatives have been conducted in Tanzania, Kenya, Nepal, Costa Rica, Ghana, and Vietnam, demonstrating the potential usefulness of these tools for Permaculture practitioners worldwide. Apart from agriculture, identifying climate analogues can inform various aspects of adaptation, including building design, water systems, and cultural practices. Methodologies for locating climate change analogues involve steps such as researching climate change forecasts, examining climate data charts, and comparing regions based on latitude, elevation, precipitation, and other factors. **Key Points:** - Climate analogues refer to areas with similar climates, both present and projected future climates. - Forecasting climate change involves uncertainties regarding stable states and human-induced changes. - Practicality and incremental change are emphasized to avoid introducing species that may fail in current conditions. - Locating climate analogues is valuable for research organizations and facilitates genetic exchange and farmer trainings. - Practical examples demonstrate the benefits of identifying climate analogues for agricultural adaptation. - Farmer visits to climate change analogues facilitate knowledge exchange and preparation strategies. - Identifying climate analogues can inform various aspects of adaptation beyond agriculture. - Methodologies for locating climate change analogues involve researching forecasts, examining climate data, and comparing regions based on various factors. #### Sources * [Climate Change Projections – Permaculture Design: Tools for Climate Resilience](https://open.oregonstate.education/permaculturedesign/chapter/climate-change-projections/) * [Climate Change Analogue – Permaculture Design: Tools for Climate Resilience](https://open.oregonstate.education/permaculturedesign/chapter/climate-change-analogue/) * [Climate Change Analogue Examples – Permaculture Design: Tools for Climate Resilience](https://open.oregonstate.education/permaculturedesign/chapter/climate-change-analogue-examples/)