up:: [[PDC-ADV - Permaculture Design for Climate Resilience]] tags:: #source/course #on/permaculture #on/climate_change people:: [[Andrew Millison]] # PDC-ADV M5 - Climate Resilience Synthesis [Part 2: Design Strategies for Climate Resilience – Permaculture Design: Tools for Climate Resilience](https://open.oregonstate.education/permaculturedesign/part/part-2-design-strategies-for-climate-resilience/) ## Drought, Heat, and Erratic Rainfall **Threat Summary:** - Drought, heat, and erratic rainfall have diverse impacts on urban and rural populations, with a significant focus on agriculture due to its critical role in maintaining stable societies. - Climate change leads to altered rainfall patterns, affecting sowing and harvesting periods, particularly impactful in arid and semi-arid climates. - Erratic rainfall can cause both decreased and increased precipitation, resulting in low yields, crop failure, water depletion, and increased wildfire risk. - Extreme rainfall events lead to flash flooding and soil erosion, posing risks to dryland agricultural systems. - Changing season lengths affect crop viability and planting times, disrupting traditional agricultural calendars. - Farmers face challenges adapting to unpredictable climate conditions, leading to crop failure, topsoil loss, and infrastructure damage. **Extreme Event Survival:** - The Thar Desert in Rajasthan, India, demonstrates adaptation to extreme conditions with stable agricultural systems. - Local knowledge indicates a historical pattern of good rainfall years interspersed with droughts and extreme droughts, shaping resource conservation practices. - *Survival strategies include grain, fodder, firewood, water, vegetable, seed, and tree banks, ensuring resilience during lean times.* - Five keystone tree and shrub species provide essential resources and are conserved for food security during drought years. **Site Mitigation Plan:** - Strategies for drought resilience include water storage, reduced irrigation, appropriate crop selection, and reliance on heat-tolerant species. - Reduction of fossil fuel usage, soil erosion, and exposed soil surfaces, along with enhancing soil water holding capacity, are essential. - Diversification of income sources using agricultural residues and cultivation of tree products contributes to resilience. - Cultivation of tree products and parasitic/pollinating insects, along with water harvesting and infiltration strategies, mitigate flooding risks. **Regional Mitigation:** - Regional planning at watershed scale is crucial for resilience, focusing on water resource development and groundwater recharge. - Organizations like GVNML and GRAVIS Jodhpur implement village-scale water harvesting projects, altering hydrology and agriculture in their regions. - Reforestation initiatives like Africa's Green Wall and China's Kubuqi Desert reforestation contribute to climate stabilization and food security. - Adaptation strategies must consider ecosystem-specific approaches, such as managing for soil cover in arid areas like the Western Juniper woodlands. By implementing comprehensive strategies at both local and regional scales, communities can enhance their resilience to the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change. The text discusses the complexities of drought and its recovery, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies rather than blanket approaches. It highlights that drought is not a one-time event but a long-term disaster requiring permanent adaptation. The focus is on consistently building and storing essential resources in drought-prone areas to endure future dry spells or heat waves effectively. **Key Points:** - Grasses play a crucial role in retaining soil moisture and regulating water flow in arid ecosystems. - Soil moisture levels and water flow in streams and springs increase with the presence of grasses. - *Encouraging every arid ecosystem towards a climax forest as a blanket strategy is cautioned against due to unique ecosystem dynamics.* - Drought is a persistent, long-term disaster necessitating permanent adaptation rather than singular recovery efforts. - Extreme heat events within droughts pose significant threats to lives, livestock, wildlife, and infrastructure. - Recovery from intense heat events requires future planning, species selection, and infrastructure development. - Erratic rainfall events, if not managed properly, can lead to disaster, emphasizing the importance of well-designed water harvesting systems. - Recovery from topsoil loss, crop destruction, and infrastructure damage due to erratic rainfall requires time, resources, and readiness for future water flow episodes. - Opportunities for crop cultivation may arise from new soil deposition and landscape saturation caused by flash floods, mitigating losses from crop failure. ## Wildfire The threat assessment regarding wildfires underscores the increasing risk posed by climate change-induced conditions, particularly the heightened probability of "very large fires," which are the most extensive 10% of wildfires in the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a significant increase in the occurrence of these fires by 2042, especially in fire-prone regions like the Great Plains and Northwest, where the length of fire seasons could extend by 400-600%. Assessing and mapping these threats are crucial, with considerations ranging from fire behavior to critical weather events. **Key Points:** - Climate change exacerbates wildfire risk, with rising temperatures extending fire seasons and increasing the likelihood of "very large fires." - Assessing the threat involves evaluating fire seasons, critical weather events, and fire behavior indicators. - Mapping the "fire shed" helps identify areas prone to wildfires and informs site selection for mitigation efforts. The wildfire season assessment involves analyzing climatology, fire activity, critical weather events, fire slowing or stopping events, and fire growth potential indicators. This comprehensive evaluation informs understanding of when and why fire seasons peak, factors contributing to fire activity, and events that influence fire spread and containment. The fire behavior triangle, encompassing *topography, weather, and fuel*, aids in assessing wildfire risk at the site level. Topographic features like slope, landform, and solar aspect influence fire spread, while weather factors such as wind direction, speed, and temperature during fire season inform risk assessment. Assessing fuel conditions involves examining vegetation density, continuity, and flammability, considering factors like fire suppression history and human development in fire-prone ecosystems. Climate change exacerbates fire risk, necessitating long-term planning to mitigate potential catastrophic fires. **Key Points:** - Topography affects fire behavior, with slope, landform, and solar aspect influencing fire spread patterns. - Weather conditions like wind direction, speed, and temperature play a critical role in determining fire risk and behavior. - Understanding fuel continuity and load helps identify areas vulnerable to fire spread and inform mitigation strategies. - Fuel assessment considers vegetation density, continuity, and flammability, highlighting areas susceptible to fire spread. - Human development in fire-prone ecosystems increases fuel load and risk, requiring strategic planning for mitigation. - Climate change projections inform assessments of future fire regimes and ecosystem shifts, guiding proactive mitigation efforts. Strategies for site mitigation include creating fire breaks and clustering critical infrastructure within fire-resistant elements, such as roads, irrigated areas, and hardwood forests. Permaculture principles guide the design of defensible spaces to protect infrastructure from wildfire damage. Fire mitigation strategies, particularly applicable to rural areas and urban fringes, focus on managing vegetation and creating buffers against wildfires. The most fire-prone locations tend to be adjacent to unmanaged natural areas or industrial forest areas. **Key Points:** * Permaculture principles inform the design of defensible spaces and multi-layered fire breaks to minimize wildfire impact. - Fire-prone areas are typically rural or located on the urban wildlands interface. - Management strategies include creating fire breaks, managing forest types, and integrating animal grazing. - Closed canopy hardwood forests like Teak can act as fire breaks by slowing down the spread of fire. - Animal grazing, such as using donkeys to keep dry grasses down, can also serve as an effective strategy for maintaining fire breaks. - Integrating irrigation systems for both crop protection and fire suppression demonstrates stacking functions in design. Water storage structures play a crucial role in fire suppression efforts, requiring thoughtful design and placement. They should be strategically located to provide gravity-fed water for firefighting purposes. **Key Points:** - Water storage ponds should be full during dry seasons for fire suppression and may double as recreational areas. - Design considerations include gravity-fed release mechanisms and access for firefighting equipment. - Evaporation mitigation strategies, such as windbreaks, are important for maintaining water levels in open water storages. Structures need to be designed to resist flames, extreme heat, and flying embers during wildfires. External materials and roofing are particularly important considerations. **Key Points:** - Structures should minimize flammable materials and consider methods like sprinklers for wetting down roofs. - Underground or fireproof structures, like bunkers, can provide life-saving protection during wildfires. - Critical infrastructure should be protected within fire breaks to prevent ignition from flying embers. Site design for extreme event survival involves considerations such as evacuation planning, multiple ingress/egress points, and predetermined meeting places. **Key Points:** - Evacuation routes and meeting places should be planned in advance, considering possible communication failures during wildfires. - On-site presence during fire season allows for immediate response to firefighting needs. - Regional mitigation efforts should consider the broader ecosystem, including slope management and fuel reduction strategies. Recovery efforts post-wildfire focus on soil stabilization and guiding succession towards a productive landscape. **Key Points:** - Immediate soil stabilization is essential to prevent erosion and landslides post-fire. - Permaculture principles can guide succession towards desired ecosystem outcomes. - Communities affected by wildfires can rebuild and incorporate lessons learned into resilient landscape designs. ## Tropical Cyclone Effects **Threat Summary:** - Hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are different terms for tropical cyclones, depending on the region. - These storms are categorized based on wind speed, with the strongest reaching Category 5. - NOAA presents conclusions on tropical cyclones: - No definitive link between greenhouse gas emissions and tropical cyclone activity. - Anthropogenic warming likely to increase wind intensity and rainfall. - Greater atmospheric moisture content from warming will increase rainfall. - Sea level rise will elevate storm surges. - Recent examples like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 highlight the increasing severity of rainfall. - Site assessment for tropical cyclone danger involves historical research and mapping of key factors like distance to coast, elevation, watershed, and geology. - Specific damage from cyclones includes defoliation and destruction of structures. **Extreme Event Survival:** - Three aspects: preparation, survival during, and after the event. - Evacuation, while crucial, can be hindered by rapid storm intensification and logistical challenges. - Cuban mass evacuation model showcases centralized control for effective storm preparedness. - Localized evacuation and regional shelters are preferred over mass exodus. **During the Storm:** - Survival depends on site design, including robust shelter, flood-resistant plants, and animal housing. - Storage methods crucial for preserving essentials during storm damage. **Site Mitigation Plan:** - Structural resilience strategies include reinforced connections and domed or interconnected buildings. - Retractable infrastructure for energy, water, and waste management enhances resilience. - Decentralized energy, water, and waste systems mitigate post-storm power and water failures. - Forest and cropping systems contribute to landscape stability and post-cyclone food security. **Key Points:** - Different terms (hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons) for tropical cyclones. - NOAA's conclusions on cyclones highlight potential impacts of anthropogenic warming. - Site assessment involves historical research and mapping of key factors. - Survival strategies encompass preparation, evacuation, and resilient site design. - Cuban mass evacuation model contrasts with challenges of mass evacuations elsewhere. - Localized evacuation and robust shelters are favored over mass exodus. - Structural, energy, water, and waste management strategies enhance site resilience. - Forest and cropping systems contribute to landscape stability and food security. **Watershed Management:** - Challenges such as soil erosion and landslides are addressed through strategies like tree cover on steep slopes and interspersed tree belts. - Breaking the landscape into smaller field components with hedgerows and agroforestry belts reduces open expanses vulnerable to concentrated forces. **Species Selection:** - Species like Vetiver Grass, Napier Grass, and bamboo are chosen for soil stabilization, considering their resilience and fire danger. - Selection of tree species resistant to tropical cyclone force winds and salt tolerance is crucial for landscape stability. **Resilient Perennials:** - Planting diverse root crops and perennial leafy greens provides immediate food security after a cyclone. - Utilizing permaculture principles, zones around homes are designed with resilient plant species for post-storm foraging. **Regional Scale Mitigation:** - Adoption of watershed perspectives by municipalities helps in planning and mitigating flash flooding risks. - The scale of potential damage is linked to watershed size and low-lying areas susceptible to flooding and landslides. **Mitigation Strategies:** - Planting permanent forest cover on steep slopes, interspersing trees on gentler slopes, and breaking open lands into smaller segments with hedgerows. - Soil covering, aligned roads, and crop rows aid in water absorption and percolation, reducing ## Sea Level Rise and Flooding **Sea Level Rise:** - Global mean sea level rise is currently at 3.2 mm per year, expected to increase. - Causes include thermal expansion of water, melting glaciers, polar ice caps, and ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica. - CO2 emissions are at their highest level in 66 million years, leading to further warming, ice melting, and water expansion. - Projections indicate a rise of 4 feet or 1.2 meters by the century's end. - Variability exists in sea level rise across regions. **Flooding:** - Heavy precipitation is increasing, leading to more frequent flood events. - Floods particularly affect lowlands and unstable slopes, increasing landslide risks. - Historic flood events provide insight into potential future dangers. **Site Mitigation Plan:** - Sea level rise requires ongoing adaptation strategies rather than singular recovery efforts. - Coping strategies include elevating vulnerable structures and utilizing stilt houses and floating homes. **Structures:** - Architecture in wet ecosystems includes stilt houses and floating homes, often inhabited by poorer communities. - Innovative designs for floating homes incorporate sustainable practices like rainwater harvesting and wastewater treatment. **Agriculture:** - Transition to aquaculture in areas experiencing saltwater intrusion. - Research into salt-resistant crop varieties and genetically modified organisms for saltwater farming. - Adoption of permaculture strategies like elevating plant beds to mitigate seasonal inundation. **Water Supply:** - Groundwater salinity increases with rising seas, necessitating alternative water sources like rainwater collection. - In-ground storage is limited in saline environments, requiring containerized storage solutions. - Permaculture water systems offer additional design features like greywater systems and constructed wetlands. **Regional Scale Mitigation:** - Large-scale infrastructure projects like dikes and seawalls are feasible in wealthier nations. - Small-scale changes such as decentralized wastewater treatment systems can mitigate impacts. - Effective planning and zoning regulations are crucial for addressing long-term sea level rise and flood risks. **Vision of Future Coastlines:** - Innovative approaches like stilted homes, aquaculture, and salt-resistant crops offer potential adaptation strategies. - Despite challenges, there's room for creativity and innovation within coastal communities to build climate-resilient systems. By adopting diverse adaptation strategies and reimagining coastal living, communities can better cope with the challenges posed by sea level rise and increased flooding.