up:: [[Futures Thinking]] tags:: #on/future #on/innovation #on/forecasting # Future Forecasting ## Futures Mapping This tool explores either a future point you want to arrive to or not want to arrive to. Explore beyond frontiers, test out the thing you can't test in real life yet. Some good starting points are: 1. Technology/Science 2. Problem/Challenge 3. Business Opportunities 4. Futures and Ambitions The United Nations sustainable development department [link](https://sdgs.un.org/goals) and World Economic Forum's [global risk assessment](https://www.weforum.org/global-risks) are great places to look for pressing problems for synthesizing futures. Understanding how things can shift is critical; the impossible becomes the inevitable, or vice versa. *When Future forecasting, think at least in **10-year** timeframes. It is far enough out that things can be really different. This allows you to move past the constraints of today and have enough time to **plan**, **gather resources**, **recruit allies**, and **take action**.* ## Futures Wheel The future is never simple: most things that are good have a downside, and most things that are bad have some positive effects. Brainstorm in a structured way, incorporating positive consequences and negative consequences. Think from the perspective of different age groups, geographical locations; think about this in different lines of the social, technological, and economic repercussions. ***First order of consequences** are very intuitive based on the future being researched; try to capture five to ten for the futures wheel.* ***Second order consequences** are harder to determine even for seasoned futurists. It may be helpful to consider consequences along the **STEEP** framework.* - Social: consumer behaviour, culture, demographics, religion, lifestyles, values, media, health. - Technological: innovation, communication, energy, transportation, biotech, digital. - Economic: employment, startups, bankruptcies, recession/expansion, interest rates, international trade, taxes. - Environmental: greenhouse has emissions, extinctions, climate change, deforestation, water, agriculture. - Political: elections, wars, regulations. E.g., if cars were the subject, the first order consequence may be the construction of roads, and the second order consequences would be traffic jams and licensing. Then introduce random factors and chaos to help think through additional second order consequences. > [!example] E.g. portable computer → foldable computer → edible computer. In terms of sustainability. E.g. driverless cars → farmerless farms. ### Gather Signals and Drivers *A **signal of change** is anything that is already happening today, that could be a clue to the future.* This signal can be a new invention, product, business, behaviour, law, or even crime. Signals are examples of their underlying drivers. Use these signals to derive their underlying driver for change. Drivers are the big changes that already underway, and they move society towards particular futures, every signal has at least one driver behind it. [[Example Future Drivers]] #### Aside: How to make a quick forecast. 1. Pick a driver of change. E.g., self-driving cars. 2. Pick a specific topic you are interested in. E.g., Real Estates, Legislation. 3. Apply the driver on the topic. Think what will become more common and what will become less common due to this driver. - Innovators will come along and repurpose uses for residential driveway and garages that no longer need to contain personal vehicles. - Legislation adoption will be sporadic, some places will ban human-driving, some will allow mix-driving, and some will block the adoption of autonomous vehicles. ## Futures Cone (Voros Cone) *In a **futures cone**, we take the various levels of consequences of a future, as well as their supporting signals and drivers, to categorize them by likelihood.* - Probable Future - Futures that likely to happen or is happening already. - Plausible Future - Futures that you think can happen based on the current understanding of the world. - Possible Future - Futures that we think might happen based on things we do not know yet and are not sure of, but might be one day. - Impossible Future - Futures that you think are ridiculous or can never happen. Also look into the past for buildups and reactions, the trajectory of how the world got to today. Then also plot along a timeline, i.e., 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 100 years. Add notes on different futures, either drivers, risks, or global trends, then use these to spot any dependencies exist between timeframes. This allows us to formulate succinct forecast statements to capture the essence of a future scenario. > [!example] By the year 2030, theft of personal objects will be uncommon and almost impossible due to Internet of Things. *A good short-term (i.e., 10 years) forecast is **possible**, **provocative**, and **plausible**.* There are plenty of signals and drivers contributing to its direction; it makes people stop, think, and sparks conversation; and it is plausible albeit not inevitable, such that there are actions to take in order to be actualized or avoided. It is important here to note the importance of a forecast to be provocative over being an accurate prediction, so that it engages conversations and actions. > [!note] Definition: VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. In a VUCA world, volatility yield vision, uncertainty yields to understanding complexity yields to clarity and ambiguity yields to agility. Vision gets rewarded disproportionally as people seek answers, especially in volatile situations. Uncertainty breeds the effort to understand the surrounding environment. Complexity reduces the possibility of detailed plans into clear intents of direction. With these research, we can explore [[Future Simulation]] and [[Future Scenarios]]Future. Resources: - [Designing Products of the Future](https://www.domestika.org/en/courses/1880-designing-products-of-the-future) - [Futures Thinking Specialization](https://www.coursera.org/specializations/futures-thinking) - [Envisioning.io](https://www.envisioning.io/) - [Futures Cone](https://www.jisc.ac.uk/guides/vision-and-strategy-toolkit/futures-cone)