up:: [[Concepts MOC]] tags:: #map/atlas # Futures Thinking Futures Thinking is the practice of using [[Future Simulation]] techniques to apply [[Future Forecasting]], which produces [[Future Scenarios]] and [[World Building]]. These thought experiments contain hypothetical and actual timelines of cause and effect. The benefits of exploring such concepts it to then reflect on the necessary and sufficient pre-conditions of various futures - both good and bad. Then * Build [[Thinking/Spaces/Entrepreneurship/Future Artifacts]] to help communicate plausible futures to others. * Guide innovation to progress toward [[Preferred Futures]]. * Establish guidelines to avoid disastrous futures. --- **Anticipatory Thinking Protocols:** - **Delphi Method:** Developed in 1953, it structures group communication to address complex problems. Involves iterative, independent questioning of expert panelists, who refine their views based on anonymous peer feedback. Time-consuming but effective for tranquil, objective issue exploration. - **Causal Layered Analysis (CLA):** Focuses on opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It considers various layers of analysis and integrates different ways of knowing. - **Environmental Scanning:** Used at the start of futures projects to explore trends, issues, and events from diverse sources. Includes FUTURE structure by Patrick Dixon and focuses on potential Wild Cards. Four types of indicators can be examined in the process of environmental scanning: 1. Lone signals (individual factors that might indicate change) 2. Landmark events (in various areas of life) 3. Forecasts of experts 4. Statistical descriptions (to portray development of elements of the study). - **Morphological Analysis:** Developed by Fritz Zwicky for non-quantified problem-solving. Uses cross consistency assessment to reduce possible solutions. - **Scenario Planning:** Introduced by Herman Kahn for military and strategic studies. It creates detailed plausible future scenarios to aid decision-making. **Additional Techniques:** - **Future History:** Postulated history for the future, common in science fiction. - **Monitoring:** Evaluates events in real-time, involving activities like scanning, detecting, and assessing. - **Content Analysis:** Systematic study of various 'messages' from diverse sources for reliable insights. - **Backcasting (Eco-History):** Identifies a scenario and traces its development back to the present. - **Back-View Mirror Analysis:** Analyzes past using quantitative and qualitative data to address future thinking challenges. - **Cross-Impact Analysis:** Assesses how future events might interact, developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer. **Workshops and Analytical Methods:** - **Futures Workshops:** Developed by Robert Jungk, they involve imagining and planning desired futures. - **Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA):** Evaluates potential failures in products or processes for risk management. - **Measured Action:** Enhances FMEA by matching calculated risks with contingencies. - **Futures Biographies:** Gathers individual views on the future for collective study. - **[Futures Wheel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_wheel):** Brainstorming tool for mapping secondary and tertiary consequences of trends and events. - **Artifacts from the Future:** Visualizes future possibilities through fictional 3D objects or videos. - **Relevance Tree:** Breaks down large subjects into smaller, detailed subtopics. **Simulation and Modelling:** Used to represent reality and analyze behaviors. However, they simplify systems, which may lead to omitted factors and potential errors. **Social Network Analysis:** A key technique in sociology, anthropology, and organizational studies, analyzing how social networks influence problem-solving and success. **Systems Engineering:** An interdisciplinary approach to manage complex systems and interactions. **Visioning:** Used in urban planning and studies of desirable futures, focusing on values and guiding present behaviors. **Trend Analysis**: A common forecasting method, examining past performance to predict future outcomes. - **Types**: - **Quantitative**: Involves statistical data, plotted over time to establish trends. - **Qualitative**: Focuses on social, institutional, organizational, and political patterns. - **Challenges**: - **Short-term vs Long-term**: Simple for short-term forecasts; complexity increases over time due to dynamic forces affecting trends. - **Historical Data**: Time series analysis reveals surprising patterns. - **Early Identification**: Crucial in qualitative analysis; mature trends are less useful for influencing behavior. **Adaptive Role-Playing**: - **Relation to Game Theory**: Studies optimal behavior choices in interactive environments, unlike decision theory. - **Importance**: Essential for ALL-WinWin collaborative efforts and group decision support systems (GDSS) in knowledge management. --- Sources: * [Futures studies - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies) * [Futures techniques - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_techniques) * Maness, Juana (2016). [_Techniques, Methods & Applications in Futures Studies_](https://blackwells.co.uk/bookshop/product/Techniques-Methods--Applications-in-Futures-Studies-by-Juana-Maness-author/9788132347224). [ISBN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISBN_(identifier) "ISBN (identifier)") [978-1-283-50880-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1-283-50880-3 "Special:BookSources/978-1-283-50880-3").[http://psulibrary.palawan.edu.ph/wtbooks/resources/pdf/9781283508803.pdf](http://psulibrary.palawan.edu.ph/wtbooks/resources/pdf/9781283508803.pdf)